Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.173759 2.306285 2.446147 2.605338 2.782240 2.973644 3.197554
2025-07-27 2.008354 2.194998 2.402063 2.651018 2.945238 3.285834 3.715954
2025-08-03 1.871490 2.085102 2.330008 2.635666 3.013008 3.472219 4.087727
2025-08-10 1.766785 1.997479 2.268760 2.617488 3.063557 3.629726 4.429281
2025-08-17 1.675428 1.916292 2.205337 2.585963 3.087483 3.747455 4.723850
2025-08-24 1.598082 1.845700 2.147992 2.554396 3.103989 3.851093 5.005162
2025-08-31 1.545112 1.801221 2.119090 2.555194 3.160436 4.010905 5.385765
2025-09-07 1.504180 1.768912 2.102663 2.569555 3.234149 4.199485 5.835162
2025-09-14 1.446759 1.712227 2.050749 2.531181 3.228180 4.266638 6.092787
2025-09-21 1.393350 1.658164 1.999245 2.489504 3.212970 4.316080 6.324352
2025-09-28 1.342873 1.605766 1.947327 2.443780 3.187531 4.345432 6.521918
2025-10-05 1.325212 1.595819 1.951931 2.478199 3.284774 4.581305 7.144719
2025-10-12 1.309063 1.587717 1.959270 2.517913 3.394950 4.854358 7.908221
2025-10-19 1.294845 1.581508 1.968706 2.560946 3.513621 5.156729 8.812166
2025-10-26 1.263420 1.550384 1.941373 2.546432 3.536205 5.286964 9.360339
2025-11-02 1.233255 1.519866 1.913497 2.529250 3.552439 5.406271 9.913041
2025-11-09 1.201176 1.485588 1.878790 2.499441 3.544516 5.477366 10.361802
2025-11-16 1.170928 1.452927 1.845189 2.469580 3.534128 5.542004 10.812177
2025-11-23 1.151123 1.434342 1.831406 2.470335 3.577500 5.720726 11.645310
2025-11-30 1.135958 1.421799 1.825932 2.483921 3.644578 5.957473 12.747325
2025-12-07 1.108038 1.390200 1.790951 2.447611 3.617275 5.986078 13.184921
2025-12-14 1.080568 1.358571 1.754981 2.408154 3.581618 5.992429 13.552806
2025-12-21 1.053272 1.326570 1.717565 2.364839 3.536160 5.972183 13.823554